Santa Cruz County Real Estate Sales - How do things compare to last year?

Santa Cruz County Real Estate Sales - How do things compare to last year?

Listings began to climb starting in February last year, a little earlier than usual, and reach almost 400 in April. April through September of last year (2019) there was an average of 350 new listings each month. Sales numbered about 240/month April through September.

This year began stronger than last with February recording 340 new listings. Come March, however, new listings dropped to 278 and in April to 236. Sales dropped as well. Though it’s too early yet to see the Covid-19 effect, sales are definitely lower than last year at this time averaging about 160/month for March and April. 

Having fewer new listings, it’s only natural to expect fewer sales. Taking a look at Months of Inventory is another way to measure what’s happening.

Months of Inventory is a measure of how fast all the existing homes on the market would last assuming a) no more listings are added, and b) the rate at which homes sell is a constant figure based on the average of the last 12 months of sales.

Example: Say there are 100 homes on the market at the end of the month. Based on the last 12 months of sales, we found that an average of 20 homes sold every month. Remember, our assumption is that we are not adding any more homes to inventory in the coming months. So simply take the 100 homes we have, and divide it by 20 homes that sell each month on average. 100/20=5 months of inventory.

Last year at this time Months of Inventory was 3.4 for March and April. This year it was 3.9 and 4.4 for March and April respectively. So not only are there fewer listings on the market, but it’s taking longer to sell them. Another reason for less sales in the statistics. 

It's not surprising that there has been a slow down. Many people have enough to deal with in adjusting to the new day to day without adding an additional experience of either selling their home or buying a new one. Unless of course, there is a need to because of the usual things that create a sale. I'm guessing, and this is just a guess, that many people that don't have to sell, or have to buy, are taking a bit of a breather, or at least trying to, from adding new chores or obligations to their plate.  

So I think I'll take a long slow breath, and breathe out slowly. Maybe even a couple of times. Then I'll come back to evaluating the real estate market. :-)

Stay well and Keep It Real!